Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 11.555223 14.189584 17.131924 20.639544 24.684007 29.178008 34.525015
2025-12-14 7.823877 11.180493 15.360403 20.849188 27.760835 36.067025 46.685747
2025-12-21 5.349147 8.725877 13.335681 19.877321 28.689793 39.908709 55.000837
2025-12-28 4.198751 7.657600 12.748744 20.427453 31.314329 45.773736 65.947950
2026-01-04 3.306350 6.712138 12.091206 20.663341 33.374200 50.879250 76.061936
2026-01-11 2.677262 6.015671 11.642996 21.063334 35.588292 56.219808 86.672013
2026-01-18 2.227248 5.509337 11.384898 21.665283 38.068782 61.997470 98.094616
2026-01-25 1.728744 4.770893 10.593412 21.278526 38.955234 65.463159 106.352852
2026-02-01 1.416864 4.323172 10.228187 21.522992 40.791384 70.361405 116.822638
2026-02-08 1.097480 3.756782 9.532208 21.086699 41.452204 73.470512 124.746459
2026-02-15 0.828460 3.214741 8.775725 20.426518 41.646905 75.817025 131.568830
2026-02-22 0.705857 3.018309 8.700998 21.016592 43.984224 81.601882 143.789084
2026-03-01 0.528730 2.605768 8.108989 20.606301 44.671670 84.994211 152.822264
2026-03-08 0.419112 2.355997 7.845483 20.828595 46.521670 90.402832 165.293273
2026-03-15 0.286424 1.938172 7.066214 19.858283 46.076967 91.953329 171.682156
2026-03-22 0.234537 1.807319 6.998873 20.408058 48.516146 98.457330 186.242412
2026-03-29 0.183970 1.645056 6.805521 20.643775 50.351000 103.988657 199.394491
2026-04-05 0.147090 1.520958 6.691866 21.043474 52.523300 110.184230 213.830440
2026-04-12 0.120724 1.432747 6.666172 21.644981 55.130284 117.239725 229.906314
2026-04-19 0.085025 1.242148 6.260527 21.258507 55.679442 120.632626 239.931316
2026-04-26 0.065269 1.137783 6.114440 21.502794 57.546182 126.464731 254.250520
2026-05-03 0.044008 0.980505 5.729237 21.066821 57.924847 129.571028 263.981439
2026-05-10 0.027498 0.824194 5.287873 20.407128 57.753340 131.625967 271.932744